Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM 12, June 2014, Honolulu, Hawaii USING SUBSET SIMULATION TO QUANTIFY STAKEHOLDER CONTRIBUTION TO RUNWAY OVERRUN

This paper studies the use of sensitivities to quantify the extent to which individual airline departments (stakeholders) contribute to the incident of runway overrun. For that purpose, we present a model of the incident runway overrun. The incident model is based on the dynamics of aircraft and describes the functional relationship between contributing factors leading to the incident. The incident model also takes operational dependencies into account. Model input are the probability distributions of the contributing factors, which are obtained by fitting distributions to data of a fictive airline. By propagating the probability distributions through our incident model, we are able to make statistical valid statements of the occurrence probability of the incident itself. Therefore, we use the subset simulation method. By estimating the design point using the samples of the subset simulation we obtain the sensitivities by applying the First-Order Reliability method. The sensitivities are used to quantify stakeholder contribution to the incident runway overrun by allocating the various stakeholders to the contributing factors.